Report by globalnan.com
In his article, Prof. Dr. Ahmed Saeed Minhas, an expert on strategic issues and currently serving as the Vice Chancellor of DHA Suffa University, analysed that since its independence in 1947, India has harboured ambitions of acting as a regional power broker. Over the decades, New Delhi has asserted itself politically, economically, and militarily across South Asia—often through covert means. According to the author, “Nepal and Bangladesh have faced significant challenges due to India’s well-known covert interventions, which hindered their growth despite possessing strong elements of national power.” While India’s influence has grown in smaller neighbouring states, it has failed to dominate Pakistan and China due to their strong military capabilities.
In recent years, India has strategically aligned itself with Western powers by presenting China as a looming threat to the regional order. This narrative has allowed India to access advanced technologies under the guise of countering Beijing. The author recalls that, “India was given a relatively easy path to acquiring state-of-the-art military technology—under the pretext of building its capabilities against a purported Chinese threat.” He also notes India’s history of diverting civilian technology for military use, such as in the 1970s when it conducted its first nuclear test using civil nuclear tech obtained under peaceful pretences.
Today, India is leveraging international technology control regimes like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement to pursue Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled unmanned weapon systems. This has raised alarms across the region. “India is focusing on acquiring AI-based unmanned weapons technology… likely to have not only regional implications but also global consequences by triggering a new and unprecedented arms race,” the author warns.
AI is increasingly central to India’s military strategy, driven by tensions with both China and Pakistan, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the Line of Control (LoC). India’s defence ecosystem—including the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and iDEX (Innovations for Defence Excellence)—is actively working on AI integration. This includes the development of autonomous systems such as UAVs and UGVs, AI-enhanced surveillance, and incorporation into C4ISR networks (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance).
The author cautions, “India’s pursuit of advanced AI capabilities poses serious implications for regional security, particularly for Pakistan,” arguing that the move could destabilise the military balance. In response, “Islamabad is justifiably compelled to consider countermeasures,” which may include building its own AI capabilities, enhancing cyber warfare potential, and reassessing its nuclear doctrine to preserve strategic deterrence.
Meanwhile, China sees India’s AI ambitions as an attempt to challenge its dominance in the region, especially in high-altitude military competition along the LAC. The author predicts a potential “AI-driven monitoring and counter-surveillance spiral in the Himalayas,” increasing the risk of miscalculation due to automated responses or flawed AI threat assessments.
One of the most transformative elements of AI in warfare is real-time situational awareness. AI systems can process data from satellites, drones, and sensors with great speed and accuracy. However, “transparency may destabilise, reducing strategic ambiguity… and making surprise strikes more likely,” the author explains. This shift in warfare increases the incentive for preemptive actions and makes miscalculations more probable.
AI is also revolutionising cyber warfare. The article states that “machine learning algorithms can create progressively intricate, adaptable, and autonomous cyber weapons capable of identifying weaknesses and initiating assaults without human intervention.” Such tools blur the lines between espionage and armed conflict, complicating attribution and increasing the risk of unintended escalation.
Another concern is AI’s role in misinformation and psychological operations. The use of deepfakes and automated propaganda to destabilise societies internally, particularly before or during conflict, is a growing risk. The author notes, “AI can generate highly realistic ‘deepfakes’… to sow discontent, incite violence, or undermine trust in governments.”
The author further critiques India’s potential overconfidence in AI-based predictions. “The development of AI-powered predictive warfare tools… may foster increased overconfidence within the Indian military hierarchy,” he warns. Such reliance on algorithms in high-stakes decisions could have disastrous outcomes if misapplied in complex conflict scenarios.
In conclusion, India’s AI-driven military modernisation “marks a pivotal development in South Asian security dynamics,” the author argues. While these advancements may strengthen India’s military capabilities, they also risk triggering an arms race, especially in a region already marked by deep-rooted rivalries and nuclear tensions. The article closes with a stark warning: “In the absence of appropriate safeguards, South Asia may face a future where the rapid advancement and autonomy of robots surpass human capacity for caution and oversight.”
